Graphic Packaging projects its first volume growth in three years and targets debt below 5 billion

Graphic Packaging is officially turning the page on its most capital-intensive chapter. After years defined by massive investments in its Kalamazoo and Waco recycled paperboard mega-mills, the Atlanta-based packaging giant is shifting its strategic weight toward cash generation, margin recovery, and a long-awaited deleveraging process.

Speaking at the Baird Global Industrial Conference on November 10, 2026, President and CEO Robbert Rietbroek outlined a clear stabilization path for the company. The most immediate signal of this transition is the upward revision of its 2026 volume outlook, now projected at 0% to 1% growth. While modest, this represents Graphic Packaging's first positive volume guidance in approximately three years, signaling a stabilization in consumer demand and successful market penetration of its new capacities.

Tackling the balance sheet

The heavy capital expenditure required to modernize and expand its coated and uncoated recycled paperboard (CRB and URB) network left Graphic Packaging with a highly leveraged balance sheet. Now, management expects net debt to decline to US$4.9 billion by the end of 2026. If achieved, this will mark the first time since 2020 that the company's debt falls below the US$5 billion threshold, bringing the projected net debt to EBITDA ratio down to 4.7 times.

This financial recalibration is supported by a steady sequential improvement in profitability throughout 2026. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, the company's EBITDA margins have climbed from 10% in the first quarter to 11% in the second, reaching 13% in the third quarter. Interim CFO Chuck Lischer noted that structural cost takeouts—which reached US$90 million in 2026 and included the difficult elimination of 500 roles—have been instrumental in protecting these margins.

The URB ramp-up and 2027 outlook

Operationally, the company is moving aggressively to fill its newly installed capacity. The entry into the Uncoated Recycled Paperboard (URB) market, heavily supported by the Waco facility, is progressing faster than initially modeled. Graphic Packaging anticipates selling more than 20,000 tons of URB in the final stretch of 2026, with projections scaling up to over 100,000 tons in 2027. This volume will supply folding cartons, laminations, and lower-strength tubes and cores, effectively broadening the company's industrial footprint with minimal additional capital investment.

For the global paperboard packaging sector, Graphic Packaging's pivot is highly consequential. The company has built one of the most efficient recycled paperboard networks in North America. Now, with the heavy lifting of construction and installation largely complete, the focus rests entirely on operational execution, pricing discipline, and translating its massive scale into sustained free cash flow.