BIR Malaga session to tackle 60 percent freight cost surge and DIWASS regulatory deadline

A market driven by logistics rather than supply and demand

As we navigate through July 2026, the global recovered paper market is operating in a fragile balance. The traditional dynamics of supply and demand have been temporarily sidelined by a much more immediate operational hurdle: logistics. The upcoming BIR World Recycling Convention & Exhibition in Malaga, specifically the Paper Division session scheduled for October 27, 2026, arrives at a critical juncture for an industry grappling with unprecedented freight pressures.

Recent market data confirms that international buyers, particularly in the emerging demand centers of South Asia, remain essential for balancing the recovered fibre surpluses generated in Europe and North America. However, the cost of executing these trades has skyrocketed. Freight costs have surged by approximately 60 percent due to geopolitical tensions and longer transit times, while insurance premiums have jumped between 25 and 40 percent. For a relatively low-value commodity per tonne like recovered paper, these increases are rapidly eroding trading margins and forcing mills to buy on a spot basis.

The backhaul imperative and shifting fibre flows

The structural shift in global fibre flows will be a central theme at the BIR session, led by Francisco Donoso of DOLAF Servicios Verdes S.L. The U.S. market, currently sitting on a recovered fiber surplus due to lightweighting and right-sizing trends in domestic corrugated packaging, is heavily reliant on exports. First-quarter data from 2026 shows India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia absorbing two-thirds of U.S. recycled fiber exports.

Industry leaders like Marc Ehrlich of Vipa Group and Asa Demme of Maersk have rightly pointed out that the recovered paper trade is fundamentally tied to backhaul logistics. Containers must return to Asia from Europe and the U.S., and filling them with secondary raw materials like Old Corrugated Containers (OCC) is both economically and environmentally logical. Disruptions in key maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of Malaga, threaten to upend this delicate reverse-logistics network.

The ticking clock of European regulation

Beyond freight, the regulatory landscape is tightening its grip on the sector. The BIR session in Malaga will provide a crucial update on the Digital Waste Shipment system (DIWASS), introduced under the EU’s revised Waste Shipment Regulation 2024/1157. With the transition period ending on December 31, 2026, the European recycling sector is racing against the clock to adapt.

There is a growing concern among industry veterans that if export procedures become excessively complex or costly, high-quality recyclable raw materials could become trapped in local markets lacking sufficient processing capacity. The challenge for regulators is to distinguish between problematic waste and legitimate, internationally traded secondary raw materials essential for the global packaging industry.

The resilience of the recovered paper sector is undeniable; as margins compress, the push towards intra-regional processing and smarter backhaul logistics will ultimately forge a more efficient, battle-tested supply chain. But if regulatory frameworks like DIWASS inadvertently choke international fibre flows, will the global packaging industry face an artificial shortage of its most critical raw material? Follow The Paper for daily news, market signals and key updates from the global paper, corrugated and packaging industry. — Sigue toda la actualidad del sector en www.thepaper.ai